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Pension reform after more than 10 years the annual budget deficit not run out of balance

Pension reform after more than 10 years the annual budget deficit not run out of balance

Wang Dehua,

toll revenues failed to keep spending on speed, this is an irreversible trend. On the expenditure side, rising pensions expenditure level on the one hand, pensions for enterprise retirees have even on the revenue side, although the spread has been collecting in advance, "but the problem is not in the base, average wage calculated on, the actual contribution rate is very low.  "

pension payments inflection.  

Ministry of Finance recently issued the 2014 notes on the national social security fund accounts showed that workers ' basic old-age insurance fund in enterprises, eliminating subsidies and other income, in 2014, the basic old-age insurance premium income to 1.8726 trillion yuan; basic pension payments for 1.9045 trillion yuan, break even for the negative 31.9 billion yuan.

in other words, pension insurance in the social security system established after many years of annual payment deficits, in 2013 alone, the balance of payments also to 91.2 billion yuan.  This means great challenges to the sustainability of pension, because in our country by urban workers and old-age insurance system consisting of two systems of urban and rural residents, the former absolute proportion, scale of last year's cumulative balance of nearly 90%.

more noteworthy is that gap arrival time in advance.  CASS financial Institute financial audit office director Wang Dehua has been measured in 2009, is expected in 2015 could only pay the deficit.

"it can be said that once the inflection point if no reform of endowment insurance system, gap will certainly more and more, this is inevitable.  "He told the 21st century business Herald, said in an interview.  

eliminate the subsidy received does not arrive

from the above accounts report, income is still greater than the expenditures, but due to pension income by basic old-age insurance premium income, subsidies and interest income, the main form, so after eliminating subsidies and other income, effective 2014 insurance balance has been received in the current period does not arrive.  

the same period, the employees ' pension insurance premium income was 1.8726 trillion yuan; while the basic pension payments for 1.9045 trillion yuan, according to large diameter 1.9797 trillion yuan to be the total expenditure this year, gap is reached 107.1 billion yuan.  

21st century business Herald Combs found that this broke the 2004 annual surplus of our pension insurance, a payment deficit for the first time.

actually the signs appear starting in 2013. Reflected on the balance of the year, its way from the original 2007 185.5 billion yuan in 2012 to 435.1 billion yuan, rise starting from turning down until reduced by 2014 347.6 billion yuan.  In other words, within two years, annual balance of the employees ' pension insurance have decreased by almost 20%.  

worth noting is that reduced the balance seems to be in 2014, has been accelerated, when revenue dropped by 61.5 billion yuan over last year, to twice times as soon as 2013.

Wang Dehua, toll revenues failed to keep spending on speed, this is an irreversible trend. On the expenditure side, rising pensions expenditure level on the one hand, pensions for enterprise retirees have been raised for 11 consecutive years by 10%; accompanied by ageing, pension number is also increasing, supporting the ratio increases. On the revenue side, although the spread has been collecting in advance, "but the problem is not in the base, average wage calculated on, the actual contribution rate is very low.  "He said.

in and out behind the subsidy pressure is increasing year after year.  According to the Treasury data, insurance subsidies from 2003 shot up to 2014 330.9 billion yuan 54.4 billion yuan, 11 years subsidies have risen 5 times.

"as these old industrial base in Northeast China, start reforms rely on subsidies. "Wang Dehua believes that current heavy reliance on subsidies to maintain operation, should be reformed.  

after more than 10 years has accumulated balances not received in the current period or out of employees ' pension insurance against phenomenon, means the use of revolving balances.  

from the above accounts report, in 2014, the end of the old-age insurance for enterprise employees accumulated balance of 3.0376 trillion yuan; end of old-age insurance for urban and rural residents has accumulated balances of 385.4 billion yuan, which amounts to about 3.4 trillion.  

However, although the country remains trillion balance, but in some young people out of the province, the old-age insurance imbalance that has emerged and continues to expand the scope.  

recently published by the party's 18 study questions in plenary, said statistics show that in 2014, the basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees funds after deducting the subsidy, arrived in provinces not receiving up to 22 in the current period.  

in the context of conflict has become increasingly prominent, especially under the influence of an aging population, pensions sustainability issues as social security one of the major problems in the future.

according to Yin Weimin, Minister of the Department of society "' Twelve-Five ' series report, employment social security" presentation, as a rapidly aging country dramatically, the dependency ratio will be reversed in the near future. By 2020, China's population will be over 60 years of 19.3%, 2050 38.6%; under the influence of, 3.04:1 of the current dependency ratio of endowment insurance in China, by 2020 is coming down to 2.94:1, 2050 will be down to 1.3:1.  That is, after more than 30 years is 1 staff contributions supporting 1 retiree.

this posed a great risk to support China's endowment insurance fund. According to the Chinese Academy of social sciences, "China's national balance sheet research" research group estimated 2013 results if you continue with the existing old-age insurance system by 2023, nationwide insurance would have a financing gap, then 6 years, that is, by 2029, the cumulative balance will be exhausted.  

by contrast, the current pension gap is significantly faster, but the cumulative balance of consumption life and Wang Dehua results broadly in line, in about 10 years. "According to the existing 300 billion yuan in financial subsidies, 2024 above trillion accumulated balance runs out. "Wang Dehua said," of course, a year or two in advance or delayed a year or two out of balance, it is possible. More importantly, you want to see this trend, multi-pronged approach to speed up the reform of the existing system. "

Research Group of the above report, is the most effective way, raising the retirement age and increase received basic old-age pension age, can play a very strong role, can significantly reduce the pension gap and improve investment yields on pension insurance to reduce the pension gap is also helpful.

 

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